📉 Are Lower Mortgage Rates Coming? What That Means for San Juan County, NM Real Estate

If you’ve been watching the San Juan County housing market and wondering when the momentum might shift—good news may be just around the corner. The past two years have been tough for buyers and sellers alike, with high mortgage rates slowing activity across the country, including here in Farmington, NM and surrounding areas.

But there’s hope on the horizon. According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), we may soon see mortgage rates begin to decline. In his recent Ask the Economist video, Yun outlines why 2025 could be a turning point for the real estate market.

Here’s how this economic outlook could impact home sales in San Juan County, NM, and why it matters if you’re thinking about buying or selling.

🔻 Fed Rate Cuts Likely—And They Could Actually Lower Mortgage Rates This Time

Yun expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as early as September 2025, with additional cuts to follow. Unlike in previous years, this time the reasoning behind the cuts—cooling inflation—should help pull mortgage rates down.

He predicts a new “normal” for mortgage rates somewhere between 6% and 6.5%, which would be a welcome relief for buyers in San Juan County’s real estate market, where affordability has been a major concern.

🏘 Rent Is Cooling—That’s Good News for Homebuyers

Inflation is largely driven by shelter costs, which make up about a third of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In growing markets like Farmington, NM, new apartment construction and a slowdown in rent hikes are starting to ease inflationary pressure. This could be another catalyst for lower interest rates, making homes for sale in San Juan County more financially attainable.

🚚 Lower Operating Costs Help Everyone—Especially Buyers in New Mexico

Gas prices are back to pre-pandemic levels, and deregulation efforts could lower business costs further. These factors benefit local homebuyers and sellers by reducing the overall cost of living and supporting stronger consumer confidence in real estate markets like San Juan County.

🧑‍💼 Younger Buyers Still Want to Own Property in San Juan County

Despite common misconceptions, a recent New York Federal Reserve survey shows that nearly 70% of renters still aspire to buy a home. In markets like Aztec, Bloomfield, and Farmington, many younger buyers are simply waiting for mortgage rates to drop before entering the market.

Once that happens, we’re likely to see a noticeable uptick in demand across the San Juan County housing market.

🏡 What It Means for Buyers and Sellers in San Juan County, NM

If you’ve been holding off, this fall may present a sweet spot in the real estate cycle:

• Buyers: Lower rates mean better affordability. Buying a home in San Juan County NM could become more feasible than it has been in years.

• Sellers: More active buyers mean stronger offers. If you’ve considered selling your home in Farmington, now may be a great time to prepare.

🌟 Final Thought: Is It Time to Act?

As Yun puts it, “Ownership should be part of your inflation hedge and the American dream.” If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to enter or re-enter the San Juan County real estate market, lower mortgage rates may soon open the door.

📍Whether you're looking at homes in Farmington, Bloomfield, Kirtland, or the surrounding areas, the next few months could be pivotal.

Source:
National Association of Realtors (2025). Ask the Economist: What is the Outlook for Mortgage Rates and Home Sales?
https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/ask-the-economist-what-is-the-outlook-for-mortgage-rates-and-home-sales

Need Help Navigating the San Juan County Housing Market?
Reach out to our team at NM Dream House. We specialize in helping buyers and sellers across Farmington, Aztec, Bloomfield, and Kirtland. Whether you're ready to act or just exploring your options, we’re here to guide you through.